The Impact of Predetermined and Emergent Supply Chain Strategies on Startup E-Commerce Firms

This study examines the impact of predetermined and emergent supply chain management (SCM) strategies on the performance of startup e-commerce firms. While prior research has extensively explored supply chain strategy in established organizations, limited empirical work has examined how startups navigate strategic trade-offs between planning and adaptability under uncertainty. Drawing on strategy formation theory (deliberate vs. emergent) and the dynamic capabilities perspective, this research investigates how different SCM approaches influence key performance outcomes, including order volume and revenue (GMV). A mixed-methods research design was employed. Phase 1 utilized a survey of e-commerce supply chain professionals to test hypothesized relationships using regression analysis, incorporating measures of predetermined strategy, emergent strategy, environmental uncertainty, and strategic ambidexterity. Phase 2 adopted a multiple-case study approach, using semi-structured interviews with executives across four startup firms to develop theory through within-case and cross-case analysis grounded in replication logic. Quantitative results indicate that supply chain strategy alone is not a primary driver of revenue performance. Instead, firm age and product assortment expansion emerged as the strongest predictors of both order volume and GMV. Predetermined strategy demonstrated a positive but only marginal relationship with operational scale (order volume), whereas emergent strategy showed no significant direct effect on performance outcomes. Measures of strategic ambidexterity were not statistically significant predictors. Overall, support for the superiority of a predetermined strategy was partial, while an emergent strategy was not supported as a primary performance driver. Qualitative findings provide deeper insight into these results, revealing that predetermined strategies enable operational scaling through standardization and infrastructure development, whereas emergent strategies function as adaptive mechanisms in response to environmental uncertainty. Importantly, cross-case analysis indicates that successful firms tend to exhibit strategic specialization rather than ambidexterity, and that operational scale serves as the primary pathway linking supply chain strategy to financial performance. The study contributes to theory by reframing supply chain strategy as an enabler of operational scaling rather than a direct determinant of financial outcomes, and by introducing a sequential model that links strategy, scale, and performance. It further challenges the prevailing assumption that strategic ambidexterity is universally beneficial in startup contexts. From a managerial perspective, the findings suggest that startup leaders should prioritize deliberate supply chain planning to support scaling while selectively leveraging emergent strategies to navigate uncertainty.